Weather Forecast Update for 2020 #SouthWestMonsoon Rainfall". #MonsoonRainfall is likely to be 102% of the LPA with model error of ±4%.

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India Meteorological Department today issued a press release about the predictions for "Long Range Forecast Update for 2020 #SouthWestMonsoon Rainfall". #MonsoonRainfall is likely to be 102% of the LPA with model error of ±4%.  

This year, rainfall is likely to be 107% of LPA over #NorthWestIndia, 103% of LPA over #CentralIndia, 102% of LPA over South Peninsula, & 96% of LPA over #NorthEastIndia, all with a model error of ± 8 %. A spatially well distributed Monsoon Rainfall expected. 

Rainfall for July & Aug is expected to be 103% & 97% of its LPA respectively both with a model error of ± 9 % based on 6-parameter Statistical Ensemble Forecasting System (SEFS) & Principal Component Regression (PCR) models.

The 5 category probability forecasts predict a very low (only 5%) probability for Monsoon Rainfall to be deficient. While there's a very high probability for monsoon rainfall to be normal (41%).


....

Vineesh V
Assistant Professor of Geography,
Directorate of Education,
Government of Kerala.
https://g.page/vineeshvc
🌏🌎
🌐🌍

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